We all know about the recent news, but because I’m me I had AI summarize the 286 page ruling below:
In a landmark ruling, a federal judge has found Google liable for illegally maintaining monopolies in the markets for general search and search advertising.
The decision, which comes after years of investigation and litigation, marks a significant victory for the U.S. Department of Justice and several state attorneys general in their fight against what they claim are Google’s anticompetitive practices.
At the heart of the case are Google’s exclusive distribution agreements with browser developers and mobile device manufacturers, which the court found have helped the tech giant secure its dominant position in the search market.
While this ruling represents a major blow to Google, the company has already announced its intention to appeal, setting the stage for a protracted legal battle that could reshape the landscape of digital markets and antitrust enforcement in the tech industry.
My Two Cents on Google’s Stronghold
Google has felt like a monopoly, but I didn’t really care because I can easily choose not to use their products. I use Brave for search, alternative ad networks are out there, and I know I’ll never bother to set up my own Linux phone.
Google has been accused of hiking up CPC which feels true, but maybe it’s due to inflation. I don’t know.
Google thanked the court for acknowledging that their product is so trusted that they have 90% of the search market share. That bit made me laugh. Google’s quality and trustworthiness went downhill years ago and I don’t see it turning around. The egregious censorship of websites as well as the abysmal quality of the SERPs are just 2 reasons not to trust Google to do anything good for you.
The Legal Maze: Buckle Up, It’s Gonna Be a Long Ride
As expected, Google has already started the appeals process. I’ve been told from some lawyer friends that this will likely take years to resolve. Appeals could take around 18 months and if it gets to the Supreme Court it could take 2-4 years from there. This ruling will change nothing in the near term.
Google’s Potential Get-Out-of-Jail Card
I do see an argument that Google could make in regards to search market share. Google has 90% of the search market today, but with AI and people’s dissatisfaction with Google’s search results I could see the market share for Google going down below 70% which could be considered a threshold for “not a monopoly”.
AI Chatbots: The New Sheriff in Search Town
People have been ditching Google search for a few years now, but what’s this about AI?
ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and Llama are all better search experiences than Google* for most queries. Except for Grok, the major AI chatbots can’t do recent info so they fail on breaking news stories, but I expect that to change in the next 3-12 months for all of them.
Using an AI chatbot for research is incredibly powerful and as more and more people learn how to use it properly they will “GPT” something before they think of Googling it. We’re already seeing visits and conversions key events in our client’s GA4 accounts from users that came from AI chatbots.**
Google’s Ad Empire: Not Out of the Woods Yet
Google does have the biggest market share here, but I believe Google will be able to argue their way out of it and just pay a fine of a few billion $ like they always do in Europe.
The AI Ad Invasion: OpenAI’s Potential Money Grab
I did want to bring up something no one has been talking about and that’s advertising in ChatGPT, et al. OpenAI famously went back on their core values. They aren’t open and are now a for profit company.
How long before OpenAI starts their own advertising network? Imagine asking it about what kind of flowers to get for Mother’s Day and getting a link to buy flowers with AI written content to convince you it’s the best place to buy flowers? I hope I’m wrong, but I know it’s coming.
*Notice I didn’t include Gemini. That’s only because it’s so bad.
**I expect Google Analytics will eventually add a new channel for AI sessions instead of putting them in the referrer bucket
